Is Your Boston Qualifying Time Fast Enough? Here's What the Latest Data Says

Right now, about 30,000 runners are training for the 2026 Boston Marathon. Meanwhile, there are just as many thousands of Boston 2027 hopefuls who are either counting down until September to see if their fall race time is good enough for acceptance or training for a spring marathon with the intention of running a worthy time. We have six months until we’ll know for sure who’s in and who’s out, but if you’re like me, it’s never too early to start thinking about the Boston Marathon qualifying time cutoff.

Now, I’m not here to speculate wildly or yell about the Boston Athletic Association’s (BAA) moving target that makes it tough to know what time to aim for. There’s plenty of that on social media already. Instead, I’ve been tracking results from a large cross-section of marathons to understand how these dynamics are shaping up.

Although we’re only a few months into the qualifying period for the 2027 Boston Marathon, there’s enough data available to sketch out the possibilities. And chances are that the cutoff next year will be even stiffer than it was this year.

First, A Boston Marathon Qualifying Cutoff Time Review

The Boston Marathon is unique in that the majority of runners must qualify to earn their spot at the starting line. The BAA makes a certain number of bibs available to time qualifiers each year, and they set different qualifying times for each age group.

But if the number of runners who qualify and apply exceeds the number of available bibs, the BAA implements a cutoff time to reduce the number of accepted runners. The cutoff for the 2026 race was 4:34. So an open division man needed a 2:50:26, and a woman needed a 3:20:26 or better to make the cut. You can read my full breakdown of last year’s cutoff time here.

Why does this matter? Well, it means 9,000 people who ran a “qualifying time” are rejected. And it’s often hard to predict just what that cutoff time will be, so runners are left wondering how much of a buffer they should shoot for. It leads to a lot of heartbreak—and not the kind caused by the hill, sadly.

What Factors Influence the Cutoff Time?

The most reliable data that can predict the cutoff time is the number of applicants who will register for the race in September. This, in turn, can be projected by tracking how the number of people running a qualifying time increases or decreases throughout the year.

Four main factors will influence how this number changes from 2026 to 2027.

1. First, BAA eliminated the double-dipping period in early September. Previously, races run in the first week or two of September could be used to qualify for multiple Boston Marathons. The qualifying periods no longer overlap, and this will slightly reduce the total number of qualifying times for next year’s race.
2. Next, BAA implemented penalties for downhill races this year. Runners at some races will have their time adjusted by 5:00 or 10:00, and this will reduce the number of qualifiers. But the impact may not be as large as you expect, and several races have managed to modify their courses to avoid the penalties altogether.
3. A third factor is race day weather. A handful of races, including Boston, London, and Chicago, account for a very large percentage of applicants. Abnormally hot and humid conditions at any one of these races can greatly reduce the number of qualifiers.
4. Finally, the sport of marathoning continues to experience a boom in participation. All kinds of races are seeing increases in the number of finishers year over year, with some large races seeing participants grow more than 10% from 2024-2025. As the number of runners completing marathons increases, the number of runners who qualify also increases. This is the primary factor that has been pushing the cutoff time up for the last three years.

Where Things Stand Today

The qualifying period for the 2027 Boston Marathon began on September 13, 2025. Although we’re only five months in, the fall is the most popular time of year for marathons. About half of the results that will occur in this qualifying period are already complete.

I collect these results each week and plug them into the Boston Marathon Cutoff Time Tracker. First, I calculate the net change in the number of qualifiers year over year. This is directly related to the number of people who will apply to run Boston. By estimating the number of people who apply, we can then project the range of likely cutoff times based on historical data. Compared to last year, the number of qualifiers year to date is down by 3.73%. If this held steady until September, the cutoff time would be between 4:15 and 4:30.

At first, that might sound like good news. But let’s peel back the onion and see what’s going on.

This part of the qualifying period includes the races from early September that used to be in the double-dipping period. Eliminating those races from the qualifying period for the 2027 Boston Marathon eliminated about 900 qualifiers. That effectively turned the clock back 20 to 30 seconds.

The fall also included the Berlin Marathon, which had unseasonably warm weather. The result? Four thousand fewer qualifiers than last year. This, combined with the elimination of the double-dipping period, created a huge deficit in qualifiers.

Finally, there were a couple of downhill marathons that resulted in fewer qualifiers. The Tunnel Lite, Big Cottonwood, and Las Vegas Marathons saw a significant drop, while St. George held steady and the Tucson Marathon avoided the penalty altogether. Combined, these races resulted in about 350 fewer qualifiers.

But the remaining races all point in the opposite direction. Chicago and New York combined for a net increase of over 2,500 qualifiers, with Chicago adding 1,462 and New York adding 1,361 runners. At the remaining races, the number of finishers was up almost 20% over 2024-2025 participation. Many large races (Honolulu, Houston, Toronto, Royal Victoria, Portland, Indianapolis, and Long Beach, for example) went up 10% while the Marine Corps Marathon was a bit of an outlier that bumped the total change even higher. Poor weather at several large fall races like Twin Cities dampened the impact of this, yet the trajectory from here on out is clearly pointing in one direction: up.

What Could Still Happen Before September

From here on out, the number of finishers and the number of qualifiers is only likely to increase. With a limited number of races yet to be run between now and September, we can estimate the extent to which those numbers can grow.

Based on data from the last qualifying period, there were about 35,000 qualifying times run between September and December and another 35,000 qualifying times run between January and September. Of those qualifying times run in the second half, about 20% belonged to someone who had already run a qualifying time in the fall.

If you first consider the World Marathon Majors, the two remaining impactful races are Boston and London. London had a particularly low number of qualifiers last year due to the heat, so the number of qualifiers at this year’s race will almost definitely be higher. Assuming the race grows modestly to 58,000 finishers, typical London weather should yield around 8,000 qualifiers—a 2,000 qualifier increase over last year. It’s also likely, based on historical trends, that fair weather will prevail at Boston, similar to last year, yielding a similar number of qualifiers.

If you discount that increase by 20% to account for runners who already qualified in the fall, you’re looking at an increase of around 1,600 qualifiers compared to last year. In the very unlikely event of very bad weather at both Boston and London, that number could instead drop by around 3,000. On the flip side, the rare situation involving near perfect weather at both races could instead boost the numbers by about 2,500.

The remaining downhill races accounted for an additional 1,350 qualifiers last year. If that number drops by 50%—a greater decline than the fall races—that would yield a net decline of 675 qualifiers. But there’s a great deal of uncertainty around these races, given the fact that the Tunnel Marathons may have to change course due to severe storms. It’s possible some of these runners shift to a different course and the impact is closer to -500.

Finally, there are all of the remaining races, which yielded about 12,000 additional qualifiers last year. These races will almost definitely be larger than last year thanks, again, to the running boom. A modest 10% increase would yield an additional 1,200 qualifiers, with possible outcomes between 600 (+5%) and 2,400 (+20%). This number has already been adjusted by 20% to account for the runners who are scoring their second BQ of the year.

What Does This Mean for Your BQ Attempt?

When you combine those factors, what are the actual possibilities?

The most likely outcome is that Boston and London have fair weather, races continue to grow at about 10%, and the downhill marathons see a modest drop in qualifiers. This would result in about 34,500 applicants and a cutoff time in the ballpark of 5:30.

The best-case scenario for BQ hopefuls? Terrible weather at both London and Boston, resulting in far fewer qualifiers. Growth at races starts to ease up, and there are only 5% more finishers. Downhill marathons suffer more than expected. The number of applicants lands around 31,500, and the cutoff time would be about 4:15.

The worst-case scenario? Perfect weather at both London and Boston, resulting in many more qualifiers. Growth at races continues at a rapid pace, with 20% more finishers across the board. The tunnel races continue with modified courses, minimizing the impact of the downhill results index. This scenario would result in about 35,500 applicants and a cutoff time of around 6:00.

It’s also worth pointing out that these projections assume that the number of accepted applicants for the 2027 Boston Marathon remains about the same as it was in 2026: 24,300.

If that number were to increase by 1,000—which would be far more than BAA has ever accepted—the range of possible outcomes would decrease to between 3:30 and 5:30. But if that number decreased by 1,000, and BAA has frequently accepted less than 24,000 runners, the range of possible outcomes would increase to between 5:00 and 6:45.

The picture will become a lot clearer as the spring races unfold, especially after Boston and London. In the meantime, here’s my advice on what to aim for this spring:

• If you want to be absolutely sure you get into Boston, aim for BQ-7:00. There’s no realistic scenario in which the cutoff is that high.
• Running a BQ-6:00 will give you a good shot at making the cut. But it’s not guaranteed, and you won’t make it in if the worst-case scenario unfolds.
• A BQ-5:00 is a crap shoot. It made the cut last year—barely—and you’ll need a dose of good luck to make it in with that time this year.

From 1980 to 1986, the qualifying time for an open division man was 2:50, and an open division woman was 3:20. That’s the fastest the qualifying times have ever been. But with this year’s cutoff, it’s very likely that runners will have to be even faster if they plan to toe the line in Hopkinton.